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Spatial modelling and the prediction of Loa loa risk: Decision making under uncertainty

Diggle, P. J., Thomson, Madeleine C., Christensen, O. F., Rowlingson, B., Obsomer, V., Gardon, J., Wanji, S., Takougang, I., Enyong, P., Kamgno, J., Remme, J. H., Boussinesq, M. and Molyneux, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8537-7947 (2007) 'Spatial modelling and the prediction of Loa loa risk: Decision making under uncertainty'. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Vol 101, Issue 6, pp. 499-509.

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Abstract

Health decision-makers working in Africa often need to act for millions of people over large geographical areas on little and uncertain information. Spatial statistical modelling and Bayesian inference have now been used to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions of a regional, environmental risk map for Loa loa ( a map that is currently being used as an essential decision tool by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control). The methodology allows the expression of the probability that, given the data, a particular location does or does not exceed a predefined high-risk threshold for which a change in strategy for the delivery of the antihelmintic ivermectin is required.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: information-systems chrysops-silacea prevalence cameroon infection intensity africa west map temperature
Subjects: QX Parasitology > Helminths. Annelida > QX 200 Helminths
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 110 Prevention and control of communicable diseases. Transmission of infectious diseases
WB Practice of Medicine > Medical Climatology > WB 710 Diseases of geographic areas
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 880 Filariasis and related conditions (General)
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 885 Onchocerciasis
Faculty: Department: Groups (2002 - 2012) > Disease Control Strategy Group
Depositing User: Sarah Lewis-Newton
Date Deposited: 05 Nov 2012 11:57
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2018 13:01
URI: http://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/1189

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