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Modelling the Contributions of Malaria, HIV, Malnutrition and Rainfall to the Decline in Paediatric Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Malawi

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Feasey, Nicholas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4041-1405, Everett, Dean, Faragher, Brian, Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa, Kang-ombe, Arthur, Denis, Brigitte, Kerac, Marko, Molyneux, Elizabeth, Molyneux, Malcolm, Jahn, Andreas, Gordon, Melita A. and Heyderman, Robert S. (2015) 'Modelling the Contributions of Malaria, HIV, Malnutrition and Rainfall to the Decline in Paediatric Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Malawi'. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Issue 7, e0003979.

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Abstract

Introduction

Nontyphoidal Salmonellae (NTS) are responsible for a huge burden of bloodstream infection in Sub-Saharan African children. Recent reports of a decline in invasive NTS (iNTS) disease from Kenya and The Gambia have emphasised an association with malaria control. Following a similar decline in iNTS disease in Malawi, we have used 9 years of continuous longitudinal data to model the interrelationships between iNTS disease, malaria, HIV and malnutrition.

Methods

Trends in monthly numbers of childhood iNTS disease presenting at Queen’s Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi from 2002 to 2010 were reviewed in the context of longitudinal monthly data describing malaria slide-positivity among paediatric febrile admissions, paediatric HIV prevalence, nutritional rehabilitation unit admissions and monthly rainfall over the same 9 years, using structural equation models (SEM).

Results

Analysis of 3,105 iNTS episodes identified from 49,093 blood cultures, showed an 11.8% annual decline in iNTS (p < 0.001). SEM analysis produced a stable model with good fit, revealing direct and statistically significant seasonal effects of malaria and malnutrition on the prevalence of iNTS disease. When these data were smoothed to eliminate seasonal cyclic changes, these associations remained strong and there were additional significant effects of HIV prevalence.

Conclusions

These data suggest that the overall decline in iNTS disease observed in Malawi is attributable to multiple public health interventions leading to reductions in malaria, HIV and acute malnutrition. Understanding the impacts of public health programmes on iNTS disease is essential to plan and evaluate interventions.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WC Communicable Diseases > Infection. Bacterial Infections > Enteric Infections > WC 269 Salmonella infections
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 750 Malaria
WS Pediatrics > Child Care. Nutrition. Physical Examination > WS 115 Nutritional requirements. Nutrition disorders
WS Pediatrics > WS 20 Research (General)
Faculty: Department: Clinical Sciences & International Health > Clinical Sciences Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003979
Depositing User: Lynn Roberts-Maloney
Date Deposited: 23 Oct 2015 10:20
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2018 13:10
URI: https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/5373

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