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Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

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Hollingsworth, T Déirdre, Adams, Emily ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0816-2835, Anderson, Roy M, Atkins, Katherine, Bartsch, Sarah, Basáñez, María-Gloria, Behrend, Matthew, Blok, David J, Chapman, Lloyd A C, Coffeng, Luc, Courtenay, Orin, Crump, Ron E, de Vlas, Sake J, Dobson, Andy, Dyson, Louise, Farkas, Hajnal, Galvani, Alison P, Gambhir, Manoj, Gurarie, David, Irvine, Michael A, Jervis, Sarah, Keeling, Matt J, Kelly-Hope, Louise ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3330-7629, King, Charles, Lee, Bruce Y, Le Rutte, Epke A, Lietman, Thomas M, Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial, Medley, Graham F, Michael, Edwin, Pandey, Abhishek, Peterson, Jennifer K, Pinsent, Amy, Porco, Travis C, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Reimer, Lisa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9711-4981, Rock, Kat S, Singh, Brajendra K, Stolk, Wilma, Swaminathan, Subramanian, Torr, Steve ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9550-4030, Townsend, Jeffrey, Truscott, James, Walker, Martin, Zoueva, Alexandra and NTD Modelling Consortium (2015) 'Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases'. Parasites & Vectors, Vol 8, Issue 1, p. 630.

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Abstract

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: QX Parasitology > Helminths. Annelida > QX 200 Helminths
WA Public Health > Health Problems of Special Population Groups > WA 395 Health in developing countries
WC Communicable Diseases > Infection. Bacterial Infections > Other Bacterial Infections. Zoonotic Bacterial Infections > WC 335 Leprosy
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 705 Trypanosomiasis
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 715 Visceral leishmaniasis
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 765 Prevention and control
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 810 Schistosomiasis
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 880 Filariasis and related conditions (General)
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 885 Onchocerciasis
WW Ophthalmology > Eye Structures and their Diseases > WW 215 Trachoma
Faculty: Department: Biological Sciences > Department of Tropical Disease Biology
Biological Sciences > Vector Biology Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
Depositing User: Jessica Jones
Date Deposited: 12 Jan 2016 11:58
Last Modified: 15 Jun 2018 10:24
URI: http://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/5493

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