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Mapping the Risk of Snakebite in Sri Lanka - A National Survey with Geospatial Analysis.

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Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith, Kasturiratne, Anuradhani, Pathmeswaran, Arunasalam, Gunawardena, Nipul Kithsiri, Wijayawickrama, Buddhika Asiri, Jayamanne, Shaluka Francis, Isbister, Geoffrey Kennedy, Dawson, Andrew, Giorgi, Emanuele, Diggle, Peter John, Lalloo, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7680-2200 and de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka (2016) 'Mapping the Risk of Snakebite in Sri Lanka - A National Survey with Geospatial Analysis.'. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Issue 7, e0004813.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND
There is a paucity of robust epidemiological data on snakebite, and data available from hospitals and localized or time-limited surveys have major limitations. No study has investigated the incidence of snakebite across a whole country. We undertook a community-based national survey and model based geostatistics to determine incidence, envenoming, mortality and geographical pattern of snakebite in Sri Lanka.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
The survey was designed to sample a population distributed equally among the nine provinces of the country. The number of data collection clusters was divided among districts in proportion to their population. Within districts clusters were randomly selected. Population based incidence of snakebite and significant envenoming were estimated. Model-based geostatistics was used to develop snakebite risk maps for Sri Lanka. 1118 of the total of 14022 GN divisions with a population of 165665 (0.8%of the country's population) were surveyed. The crude overall community incidence of snakebite, envenoming and mortality were 398 (95% CI: 356-441), 151 (130-173) and 2.3 (0.2-4.4) per 100000 population, respectively. Risk maps showed wide variation in incidence within the country, and snakebite hotspots and cold spots were determined by considering the probability of exceeding the national incidence.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
This study provides community based incidence rates of snakebite and envenoming for Sri Lanka. The within-country spatial variation of bites can inform healthcare decision making and highlights the limitations associated with estimates of incidence from hospital data or localized surveys. Our methods are replicable, and these models can be adapted to other geographic regions after re-estimating spatial covariance parameters for the particular region.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WA Public Health > Statistics. Surveys > WA 950 Theory or methods of medical statistics. Epidemiologic methods
WB Practice of Medicine > Medical Climatology > WB 710 Diseases of geographic areas
WD Disorders of Systemic, Metabolic or Environmental Origin, etc > Animal Poisons > WD 410 Reptiles
Faculty: Department: Clinical Sciences & International Health > Clinical Sciences Department
Clinical Sciences & International Health > International Public Health Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004813
Depositing User: Jessica Jones
Date Deposited: 12 Jul 2016 13:37
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2018 13:12
URI: https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/5973

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