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A Two-Locus Model of the Evolution of Insecticide Resistance to Inform and Optimise Public Health Insecticide Deployment Strategies

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Levick, Bethany ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6371-8744, South, Andy and Hastings, Ian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1332-742X (2017) 'A Two-Locus Model of the Evolution of Insecticide Resistance to Inform and Optimise Public Health Insecticide Deployment Strategies'. PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 13, Issue 1, e1005327.

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Abstract

We develop a flexible, two-locus model for the spread of insecticide resistance applicable to mosquito species that transmit human diseases such as malaria. The model allows differential exposure of males and females, allows them to encounter high or low concentrations of insecticide, and allows selection pressures and dominance values to differ depending on the concentration of insecticide encountered. We demonstrate its application by investigating the relative merits of sequential use of insecticides versus their deployment as a mixture to minimise the spread of resistance. We recover previously published results as subsets of this model and conduct a sensitivity analysis over an extensive parameter space to identify what circumstances favour mixtures over sequences. Both strategies lasted more than 500 mosquito generations (or about 40 years) in 24% of runs, while in those runs where resistance had spread to high levels by 500 generations, 56% favoured sequential use and 44% favoured mixtures. Mixtures are favoured when insecticide effectiveness (their ability to kill homozygous susceptible mosquitoes) is high and exposure (the proportion of mosquitoes that encounter the insecticide) is low. If insecticides do not reliably kill homozygous sensitive genotypes, it is likely that sequential deployment will be a more robust strategy. Resistance to an insecticide always spreads slower if that insecticide is used in a mixture although this may be insufficient to outperform sequential use: for example, a mixture may last 5 years while the two insecticides deployed individually may last 3 and 4 years giving an overall ‘lifespan’ of 7 years for sequential use. We emphasise that this paper is primarily about designing and implementing a flexible modelling strategy to investigate the spread of insecticide resistance in vector populations and demonstrate how our model can identify vector control strategies most likely to minimise the spread of insecticide resistance.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: QX Parasitology > Insects. Other Parasites > QX 510 Mosquitoes
QX Parasitology > Insects. Other Parasites > QX 600 Insect control. Tick control
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 110 Prevention and control of communicable diseases. Transmission of infectious diseases
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 240 Disinfection. Disinfestation. Pesticides (including diseases caused by)
WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 750 Malaria
Faculty: Department: Biological Sciences > Department of Tropical Disease Biology
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005327
SWORD Depositor: JISC Pubrouter
Depositing User: Stacy Murtagh
Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2017 11:05
Last Modified: 06 Jul 2018 15:13
URI: http://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/6786

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