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Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management

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Langwig, Kate E., Wargo, Andrew R, Jones, Darbi R., Viss, Jessie R, Rutan, Barbara J., Egan, Nicholas A, Sá-Guimarães, Pedro, Kim, Min Sun, Kurath, Gael, Gomes, Gabriela ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1454-4979 and Lipsitch, Marc (2017) 'Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management'. mBio, Vol 8, Issue 6, e00796-17.

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Abstract

Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to predicting the course of epidemics with and without interventions. Using multiple experimental and modeling approaches, we show that rainbow trout have relatively homogeneous susceptibility to infection with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus and that vaccination increases heterogeneity in susceptibility in a nearly all-or-nothing fashion. In a simple transmission model with an R0 of 2, the highly heterogeneous vaccine protection would cause a 35 percentage-point reduction in outbreak size over an intervention inducing homogenous protection at the same mean level. More broadly, these findings provide validation of methodology that can help to reduce biases in predictions of vaccine impact in natural settings and provide insight into how vaccination shapes population susceptibility.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: QW Microbiology and Immunology > Immunotherapy and Hypersensitivity > QW 806 Vaccination
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 115 Immunization
WA Public Health > Health Administration and Organization > WA 525 General works
WA Public Health > Statistics. Surveys > WA 950 Theory or methods of medical statistics. Epidemiologic methods
WC Communicable Diseases > Isolation and quarantine hospitals. Clinics, dispensaries, etc. Leper colonies > WC 100 General works
Faculty: Department: Clinical Sciences & International Health > Clinical Sciences Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.00796-17.
Depositing User: Stacy Murtagh
Date Deposited: 28 Nov 2017 14:52
Last Modified: 13 Sep 2019 16:05
URI: https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/7872

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