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Sinka, Marianne, Pironon, S, Massey, N, Longbottom, Joshua, Hemingway, Janet 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3200-7173, Moyes, C and Willis, K
(2020)
'A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk'. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol 117, Issue 40, pp. 24900-24908.
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2020-03976R_Merged_PDF (1) 18th June 2020.pdf - Accepted Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (2MB) | Preview |
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pnas full.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (2MB) | Preview |
Abstract
In 2012, an unusual outbreak of urban malaria was reported from Djibouti City in the Horn of Africa and increasingly severe outbreaks have been reported annually ever since. Subsequent investigations discovered the presence of an Asian mosquito species; Anopheles stephensi, a species known to thrive in urban environments. Since that first report, An. stephensi has been identified in Ethiopia and Sudan, and this worrying development has prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to publish a vector alert calling for active mosquito surveillance in the region. Using an up-to-date database of published locational records for An. stephensi across its full range (Asia, Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa) and a set of spatial models that identify the environmental conditions that characterize a species’ preferred habitat, we provide evidence-based maps predicting the possible locations across Africa where An. stephensi could establish if allowed to spread unchecked. Unsurprisingly, due to this species’ close association with man-made habitats, our maps predict a high probability of presence within many urban cities across Africa where our estimates suggest that over 126 million people reside. Our results strongly support the WHO’s call for surveillance and targeted vector control and provide a basis for the prioritization of surveillance.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | QX Parasitology > QX 4 General works QX Parasitology > Insects. Other Parasites > QX 515 Anopheles WA Public Health > Health Problems of Special Population Groups > WA 395 Health in developing countries WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 750 Malaria |
| Faculty: Department: | Biological Sciences > Vector Biology Department |
| Digital Object Identifer (DOI): | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2003976117 |
| Depositing User: | Samantha Sheldrake |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Sep 2020 14:04 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Oct 2020 11:58 |
| URI: | https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/15236 |
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