LSTM Home > LSTM Research > LSTM Online Archive

Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa

Savory, E.C, Cuevas, Luis ORCID:, Yassin, Mohammed A., Hart, C. Anthony, Molesworth, Anna M. and Thomson, Madeleine C. (2006) 'Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa'. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol 134, Issue 5, pp. 1047-1051.

Evaluation_of_the_meningitis_epidemics_risk_model_in_Africa.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (141kB)


Meningitis epidemics have a strong environmental component in Africa with the most severe epidemics occurring in the Sahelian region known as the Meningitis Belt. The objective of this study is to evaluate an ecological model based on absolute humidity and land cover type to predict the location of these epidemics. The risk model is evaluated prospectively based on epidemics occurring in Africa from January 2000 to April 2004. Seventy-one epidemics occurred during this time period affecting 22% of continental African districts. The model predicted their location with a sensitivity of 88%. The evaluation also suggests that epidemics may be extending south of the Sahel, which is consistent with environmental changes in the region. This model could be used to select priority areas for the introduction of the newly developed conjugate meningococcal vaccines. Further studies are needed to enhance our understanding of the complex relationship between meningitis epidemics and the environment.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Meningitis meningococcal infections meningococcal vaccines vaccines Epidemiology Climate
Subjects: QT Physiology > Human Physiology > QT 150 Hot climates
QV Pharmacology > QV 4 General works
QV Pharmacology > QV 55 Pharmaceutical preparations (General)
WA Public Health > WA 105 Epidemiology
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 110 Prevention and control of communicable diseases. Transmission of infectious diseases
WA Public Health > WA 30 Socioeconomic factors in public health (General)
WB Practice of Medicine > Medical Climatology > WB 700 Medical climatology. Geography of disease
WB Practice of Medicine > Medical Climatology > WB 710 Diseases of geographic areas
WC Communicable Diseases > Infection. Bacterial Infections > Bacterial Infections > WC 245 Meningococcal infections
Faculty: Department: Groups (2002 - 2012) > Child & Reproductive Health Group
Digital Object Identifer (DOI):
Depositing User: Sarah Lewis-Newton
Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2011 15:43
Last Modified: 17 Jul 2020 10:57


View details

Actions (login required)

Edit Item Edit Item