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Modelling spatiotemporal trends in the frequency of genetic mutations conferring insecticide target-site resistance in African mosquito malaria vector species

Hancock, Penelope A., Lynd, Amy ORCID:, Wiebe, Antoinette, Devine, Maria, Essandoh, John, Wat’senga, Francis, Manzambi, Emile Z., Agossa, Fiacre, Donnelly, Martin ORCID:, Weetman, David ORCID: and Moyes, Catherine L. (2022) 'Modelling spatiotemporal trends in the frequency of genetic mutations conferring insecticide target-site resistance in African mosquito malaria vector species'. BMC biology, Vol 20, e46.

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Resistance in malaria vectors to pyrethroids, the most widely used class of insecticides for malaria vector control, threatens the continued efficacy of vector control tools. Target-site resistance is an important genetic resistance mechanism caused by mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel (Vgsc) gene that encodes the pyrethroid target-site.
Understanding the geographic distribution of target-site resistance, and temporal trends across different vector species, can inform strategic deployment of vector control tools.

We develop a Bayesian statistical spatiotemporal model to interpret species-specific trends in the frequency of the most common resistance mutations, Vgsc-995S and Vgsc- 995F, in three major malaria vector species Anopheles gambiae, An. coluzzii, and An. arabiensis over the period 2005-2017. The models are informed by 2418 observations of the frequency of each mutation in field sampled mosquitoes collected from 27 countries spanning western and eastern regions of Africa. For nine selected countries, we develop annual predictive maps which reveal geographically-structured patterns of spread of each mutation at regional and continental scales. The results show associations, as well as stark differences, in spread dynamics of the two mutations across the three vector species. The coverage of ITNs was an influential predictor of Vgsc allele frequencies, with modelled relationships between ITN coverage and allele frequencies varying across species and geographic regions. We found that our mapped Vgsc allele frequencies are a significant partial predictor of phenotypic resistance to the pyrethroid deltamethrin in An. gambiae complex populations.

Our predictive maps show how spatiotemporal trends in insecticide target-site resistance mechanisms in African An. gambiae vary across individual vector species and geographic regions. Molecular surveillance of resistance mechanisms will help to predict resistance phenotypes and track their spread.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: QU Biochemistry > Genetics > QU 500 Genetic phenomena
QX Parasitology > Insects. Other Parasites > QX 510 Mosquitoes
QX Parasitology > Insects. Other Parasites > QX 650 Insect vectors
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 240 Disinfection. Disinfestation. Pesticides (including diseases caused by)
Faculty: Department: Biological Sciences > Vector Biology Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI):
Depositing User: Luciene Salas Jennings
Date Deposited: 03 Mar 2022 15:08
Last Modified: 28 Apr 2022 11:59


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