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Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Revill, Paul, Rangaraj, Ajay, Makochekanwa, Albert, Mpofu, Amon, Ciaranello, Andrea, Jahn, Andreas, Gonani, Andrew, Phillips, Andrew, Bershteyn, Anna, ZwiZwai, Benson, Nichols, Brooke, Pretorius, Carel, Kerr, Cliff, Carlson, Cindy, Ten Brink, Debra, Mudimu, Edinah, Kataika, Edward, Lamontagne, Erik, Terris-Prestholt, Fern, Cowan, Frances ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3087-4422, Manthalu, Gerald, Oberth, Gemna, Mayer-Rath, Gesine, Semini, Iris, Taramusi, Isaac, Eaton, Jeffrey, Zhao, Jinkou, Stover, John, Licea, Jose Antonio Izazola, Kripke, Katharine, Johnson, Leigh, Bansi-Matharu, Loveleen, Gorgens, Marelize, Morrison, Michelle, Chagoma, Newton, Mugurungi, Owen, Stuart, Robyn, Martin-Hughes, Rowan, Nyirenda, Rose, Barnabas, Ruanne, Mohan, Sakshi, Kelly, Sherrie, Sibandze, Sibusiso, Walker, Simon, Banda, Stephen, Braithwaite, R Scott, Chidarikire, Thato, Hallett, Timothy, Kalua, Thoko, Apollo, Tsitsi and Cambiano, Valentina (2022) 'Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa'. Lancet HIV. (In Press)

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Abstract

HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We reflect critically how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. We argue for HIV modelling to be more routinely aligned with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognizing their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. We also place importance on an environment existing in which collaboration between modellers, and joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritized for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection and analysis. We also argue the need for HIV modelling to increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another may lead to worse health overall. Such integration may also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV and to all of health care. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WA Public Health > WA 30 Socioeconomic factors in public health (General)
WC Communicable Diseases > Virus Diseases > Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome. HIV Infections > WC 503 Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. HIV infections
WC Communicable Diseases > Virus Diseases > Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome. HIV Infections > WC 503.6 Prevention and control
WC Communicable Diseases > Virus Diseases > Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome. HIV Infections > WC 503.7 Psychosocial aspects
Faculty: Department: Clinical Sciences & International Health > International Public Health Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00035-2
Depositing User: Mary Creegan
Date Deposited: 10 May 2022 11:07
Last Modified: 10 May 2022 11:07
URI: https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/20264

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