Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis: The role of local variation in rainfall and altitude on the presence and incidence of Kala-Azar in eastern Sudan

Elnaiem, D. E. A., Schorscher, J., Bendall, A., Obsomer, Valerie, Osman, M. E., Mekkawi, A. M., Connor, Stephen J., Ashford, R.W. and Thomson, Madeleine C. (2003) 'Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis: The role of local variation in rainfall and altitude on the presence and incidence of Kala-Azar in eastern Sudan'. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol 68, Issue 1, pp. 10-17.

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Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease highly influenced by environmental factors. A model was developed for mapping the distribution and incidence of VL in Gedaref State, eastern Sudan, in relation to different environmental factors. Geographical information systems (GIS) were used to extract and map regression results for environmental variables of 190 villages in Gedaref State, including rainfall, vegetation status, soil type, altitude, distance from river, topography, wetness indexes, and average rainfall estimates. VL incidence in each village was calculated from hospital records. By use of logistic and linear multivariate regression analyses, models were developed to determine which environmental factors explain variability in VL presence and incidence. We found that average rainfall and the altitude were the best predictors of VL incidence. The resulting models were mapped by GIS software predicting both VL presence or absence and incidence at any locality in Gedaref State. The results are discussed in relation to VL control.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	QX Parasitology > Protozoa > QX 70 Mastigophora. (e.g., Giardia. Trichomonas. Trypanosoma. Leishmania) WA Public Health > Health Problems of Special Population Groups > WA 395 Health in developing countries WB Practice of Medicine > Medical Climatology > WB 700 Medical climatology. Geography of disease WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 715 Visceral leishmaniasis
Digital Object Identifer (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2003.68.1.0680010
Depositing User:	Lynn Roberts-Maloney
Date Deposited:	12 Jul 2013 09:34
Last Modified:	04 Dec 2024 10:57
URI:	https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/2534

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