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Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.

Le Rutte, Epke A, Chapman, Lloyd A C, Coffeng, Luc E, Ruiz-Postigo, José A, Olliaro, Piero L, Adams, Emily ORCID:, Hasker, Epco C, Boelaert, Marleen C, Hollingsworth, T Deirdre, Medley, Graham F and de Vlas, Sake J (2018) 'Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.'. Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol 66, Issue suppl_4, S301-S308.

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 110 Prevention and control of communicable diseases. Transmission of infectious diseases
WA Public Health > Preventive Medicine > WA 240 Disinfection. Disinfestation. Pesticides (including diseases caused by)
WA Public Health > WA 30 Socioeconomic factors in public health (General)
WR Dermatology > Parasitic Skin Diseases > WR 350 Tropical diseases of the skin. Mucocutaneous leishmaniasis. Leishmaniasis
Faculty: Department: Biological Sciences > Department of Tropical Disease Biology
Digital Object Identifer (DOI):
SWORD Depositor: JISC Pubrouter
Depositing User: Stacy Murtagh
Date Deposited: 14 Jun 2018 13:39
Last Modified: 15 Jun 2018 09:46


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