Insecticide resistance management strategies for public health control of mosquitoes exhibiting polygenic resistance: A comparison of sequences, rotations, and mixtures

Hobbs, Neil Philip ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3907, Weetman, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5820-1388 and Hastings, Ian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1332-742X (2023) 'Insecticide resistance management strategies for public health control of mosquitoes exhibiting polygenic resistance: A comparison of sequences, rotations, and mixtures'. Evolutionary Applications, Vol 16, Issue 4, pp. 936-959.

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Abstract

Malaria control uses insecticides to kill Anopheles mosquitoes. Recent successes in malaria control are threatened by increasing levels of insecticide resistance (IR), requiring insecticide resistance management (IRM) strategies to mitigate this problem. Field trials of IRM strategies are usually prohibitively expensive with long timeframes, and mathematical modeling is often used to evaluate alternative options. Previous IRM models in the context of malaria control assumed IR to have a simple (monogenic) basis, whereas in natural populations, IR will often be a complex polygenic trait determined by multiple genetic variants. A quantitative genetics model was developed to model IR as a polygenic trait. The model allows insecticides to be deployed as sequences (continuous deployment until a defined withdrawal threshold, termed “insecticide lifespan”, as indicated by resistance diagnosis in bioassays), rotations (periodic switching of insecticides), or full‐dose mixtures (two insecticides in one formulation). These IRM strategies were compared based on their “strategy lifespan” (capped at 500 generations). Partial rank correlation and generalized linear modeling was used to identify and quantify parameters driving the evolution of resistance. Random forest models were used to identify parameters offering predictive value for decision‐making. Deploying single insecticides as sequences or rotations usually made little overall difference to their “strategy lifespan”, though rotations displayed lower mean and peak resistances. Deploying two insecticides in a full‐dose mixture formulation was found to extend the “strategy lifespan” when compared to deploying each in sequence or rotation. This pattern was observed regardless of the level of cross resistance between the insecticides or the starting level of resistance. Statistical analysis highlighted the importance of insecticide coverage, cross resistance, heritability, and fitness costs for selecting an appropriate IRM strategy. Full‐dose mixtures appear the most promising of the strategies evaluated, with the longest “strategy lifespans”. These conclusions broadly corroborate previous results from monogenic models.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	WA Public Health > WA 30 Socioeconomic factors in public health (General) WC Communicable Diseases > Tropical and Parasitic Diseases > WC 750 Malaria
Faculty: Department:	Biological Sciences > Department of Tropical Disease Biology Biological Sciences > Vector Biology Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.13546
SWORD Depositor:	JISC Pubrouter
Depositing User:	JISC Pubrouter
Date Deposited:	11 Apr 2023 08:50
Last Modified:	09 May 2023 13:41
URI:	https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/22250

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