Long-term BMI change trajectories in Chinese adults and its association with the hazard of type 2 diabetes: evidence from a 20-year China Health and Nutrition Survey.

Mi, Baibing, Wu, Chenlu, Gao, Xiangyu, Wu, Wentao, Du, Jiaoyang, Zhao, Yaling, Wang, Duolao ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2788-2464, Dang, Shaonong and Yan, Hong (2020) 'Long-term BMI change trajectories in Chinese adults and its association with the hazard of type 2 diabetes: evidence from a 20-year China Health and Nutrition Survey.'. BMJ open diabetes research & care, Vol 8, 8:e000879.

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Abstract

INTRODUCTION
To investigate the relationship between long-term change trajectory in body mass index (BMI) and the hazard of type 2 diabetes among Chinese adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Type 2 diabetes was reported by participants themselves in each survey wave. The duration of follow-up was defined as the period from the first visit to the first time self-reported type 2 diabetes, death, or other loss to follow-up from CHNS. The patterns of change trajectories in BMI were derived by latent class trajectory analysis method. The Fine and Gray regression model was used to estimate HRs with corresponding 95% CIs for type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS
Four patterns of the trajectories of change in BMI were identified among Chinese adults, 42.7% of participants had stable BMI change, 40.8% for moderate BMI gain, 8.9% for substantial BMI gain and 7.7% for weight loss. During the follow-up with mean 11.2 years (158 637 person-years contributed by 14 185 participants), 498 people with type 2 diabetes (3.7%) occurred. Risk of type 2 diabetes was increased by 47% among people who gained BMI more substantially and rapidly (HR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.02, p=0.016) and increased by 20% among those in people with the moderate BMI gain (HR: 1.20, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.48, p=0.078), compared with those with stable BMI change.

CONCLUSIONS
Long-term substantial gain of BMI was significantly associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the Chinese adults.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	WB Practice of Medicine > Diagnosis > General Diagnosis > WB 200 Physical diagnosis (General) WD Disorders of Systemic, Metabolic or Environmental Origin, etc > Nutrition Disorders > WD 100 General works WK Endocrine System > WK 20 Research (General) WK Endocrine System > WK 810 Diabetes mellitus
Faculty: Department:	Clinical Sciences & International Health > Clinical Sciences Department
Digital Object Identifer (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000879
Depositing User:	Julie Franco
Date Deposited:	24 Aug 2020 11:46
Last Modified:	24 Aug 2020 11:46
URI:	https://archive.lstmed.ac.uk/id/eprint/15349

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